Stockchase Opinions

Jesse Gamble A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary COMMENT Jan 27, 2025

Canadian stocks are trading at a major discount to American ones, according to PE. A lot of Canadian businesses mostly operate in the US, listed or headquartered here, but earn most of their revenue in the US. Potential US tariff impact on Canadian stocks is a case-by-case basis. He looks for in Canadian stocks those in the knowledge industries. Canada has a fine educational system and we have technology hubs, such as Kitchener-Waterloo. We have a lot of innovation and high-end knowledge in Canada that gets us away from tariffs and inflation. He owns larger- and smaller-cap names, including new disruptors. We're in the early innings of small caps.

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COMMENT
Message to investors.

There's always something a bit unique, as no two situations are exactly the same. The last time we went through a shocker was during Covid in March 2020, and the market fell over 30%. The message he sent to clients then was whenever you look back at times like these, you always say that you should've bought great companies when they were on sale. That's eternally the message.

Warren Buffett says buy when there's blood in the streets. If you buy great quality (and this is the moment to buy great quality because it's cheap again), you'll be well served when you look back at your portfolio 5 years from now.

COMMENT
How to navigate the falling knife?

An "all or none" approach is probably the wrong thing to do, as it just leads to paralysis. If someone had, say, $50k to invest, just be disciplined and put in $10k (or whatever's comfortable) a month and start buying today. If you wait until calm returns and things improve, you'll have missed the first 25% move.

COMMENT
Control what you can.

Buy the world's best companies. Anything from Canadian bank stocks to any of the great technology companies. They've all been hammered, and this is your opportunity. Dividend yields are higher because you're paying less for these stocks. Great management teams will figure out how to navigate these situations.

COMMENT
Reducing equity exposure now is a big mistake.

It's always a mistake to sell when the world is panicking. Don't forget Warren Buffett's advice to buy when people are panicked and sell when everything looks rosy. These quality companies were great 10 years ago, and they'll be great 10 years from now. If you can buy them on sale, why wouldn't you? Investors should be loving these times.

COMMENT
Energy sector.

You have to buy the sector when it looks awful and prices are low. He has minimal exposure, owning just one stock in the space. When things are weak, you really appreciate having a low-cost producer.

COMMENT
Real estate.

Shortage of housing in Canada. But in Toronto, for example, so many condos are coming on that prices are softening and even rents are softening. The only REIT he owns is CAR.UN.

Office buildings are going through an evolution, and we don't know how it's going to end. Not cheap enough to make a bet on the office space. Malls are certainly going through a worse evolution, being replaced with condos and apartments. The steady area has always been apartments.

COMMENT

Nobody likes these tariffs and bear market. He thinks that before Thursday when Congress steps away from its session, news from Congress or the White House a better path forward. Fingers crossed. If there's no resolution and Congress recesses, more volatility will happen. But volatility offers opportunity through lower prices, like Nvidia dipping below $90. It popped over $100 on rumours that the tariffs were on hold. You can nibble on names that are on sale now. He's cautious. Corrections always happen, so always have some dry powder. If you're worried by this sell-off, you don't have the right portfolio for your long-term goals.

COMMENT
Caller has put spreads on Canadian banks in the money, expiring April and May. To neutralize losses, should he roll these to another expiration date in June or July, or write some call spreads to turn them into Iron Condors?

Needs more details, but it sounds like the caller is hedging long exposure to his underlying bank stocks by owning put spreads (great). Depending on where the put strikes are, take your profit on the long end and expose your naked put to add to the position. Look at the price of volatility in the short run vs. what you will pay to roll those out to the back months. Needs more time to explain more. Don't sell calls here, not when the market is down.

COMMENT
Alternative to GIC to shelter cash for 1 year?

The government interest rate is 2.75%, and it's looking 60/40 for a rate cut. To do better than this, buy a dividend stock. It is what it is. There is no super-safe strategy without risk. Doesn't exist.

COMMENT

We're seeing emotional, knee-jerk reactions, "I need to get in. I need to get out." People should step back and look at their asset mix, what and why they're holding. If you're more than 5 years from retirement you're fine being all in stocks, can withstand volatility, which allows to take advantage of swings like this. If not, can't withstand it, you should hold some fixed income to give you safety. Being concentrated only in Canada, making up only 3% of global stocks, doesn't make sense. Diversify. We've seen 20% drops like now in 2018 and 2020 and 2022--the average intra-year drawdown over the last 75 years is 14%. Drawdowns are normal in markets, though this time it's self-inflicted (through tariffs). Before, dips allowed investors to get right away, but this time it depends on one person: Trump. Will this be V-shaped, or will it be prolonged, which will likely lead to a recession.